Obama says failure to reach fiscal deal would hurt markets

President Barack Obama delivers remarks at the White House in Washington November 28, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Kevin Lamarque

By Jeff Mason

WASHINGTON | Sun Dec 30, 2012 11:49am EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Financial markets would be affected adversely if U.S. lawmakers fail to agree on a "fiscal cliff" deal before Tuesday, President Barack Obama said in an interview broadcast on Sunday, while urging Congress to act quickly to extend tax cuts for middle-class Americans.

Lawmakers are seeking a last-minute deal that would set aside $600 billion in tax increases and across-the-board government spending cuts that are set to start within days. If Congress does not make that happen, the first bill brought up in the new year would be to reduce taxes for middle-income families, Obama told NBC's "Meet the Press."

"Now I think that over the next 48 hours, my hope is that people recognize that, regardless of partisan differences, our top priority has to be to make sure that taxes on middle-class families do not go up. That would hurt our economy badly," Obama said in the interview taped on Saturday.

"We can get that done. Democrats and Republicans both say they don't want taxes to go up on middle-class families. That's something we all agree on. If we can get that done, that takes a big bite out of the 'fiscal cliff.' It avoids the worst outcomes," Obama added.

Low income tax rates first put in place under Republican former President George W. Bush are due to expire at the end of the day on Monday - the last day of 2012.

Obama said that failing to reach a deal would have a negative impact on financial markets.

"If people start seeing that on January 1st this problem still hasn't been solved, that we haven't seen the kind of deficit reduction that we could have had had the Republicans been willing to take the deal that I gave them ... then obviously that's going to have an adverse reaction in the markets," he said.

RARE SENATE SESSION ON SUNDAY

Obama met with congressional leaders at the White House on Friday and declared himself cautiously optimistic about the chances of an agreement, but he noted in the interview that nothing had materialized since then.

"I was modestly optimistic yesterday, but we don't yet see an agreement. And now the pressure's on Congress to produce," he said.

The Senate is scheduled to hold a rare Sunday session beginning at 1 p.m. EST (1800 GMT), but it was not clear whether the chamber would have fiscal-cliff legislation to act upon.

Obama sketched out what he believed to be the most likely scenarios the end the back-and-forth between both sides. Either the congressional leaders would come up with a deal, or Democrats in the Senate would bring a bill to the floor seeking an up-or-down vote to extend tax cuts for middle income earners.

"And if all else fails, if Republicans do in fact decide to block it, so that taxes on middle class families do in fact go up on January 1st, then we'll come back with a new Congress on January 4th and the first bill that will be introduced on the floor will be to cut taxes on middle class families," he said.

Obama chided Republicans for resisting his call for tax rates to go up for the top two percent of U.S. earners despite what he viewed as significant compromises on his part to cut spending and reform expensive social programs for the poor and elderly.

"They say that their biggest priority is making sure that we deal with the deficit in a serious way, but the way they're behaving is that their only priority is making sure that tax breaks for the wealthiest Americans are protected. That seems to be their only overriding, unifying theme," Obama said.

"The offers that I've made to them have been so fair that a lot of Democrats get mad at me. I mean I offered to make some significant changes to our entitlement programs in order to reduce the deficit," he said.

(Reporting by Jeff Mason; Editing by David Brunnstrom)

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Analysis: For Senate leaders, a mission impossible from Obama

U.S. President Barack Obama makes a statement to reporters after meeting with congressional leaders at the White House in Washington December 28, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst

By Richard Cowan

WASHINGTON | Sat Dec 29, 2012 1:02am EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Following a Friday meeting with congressional leaders, an impatient and annoyed President Barack Obama said it was "mind boggling" that Congress has been unable to fix a "fiscal cliff" mess that everyone has known about for more than a year.

He then dispatched Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat, and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican, on a mind-boggling mission: coming up with a bipartisan bill to break the "fiscal cliff" stalemate in the most partisan and gridlocked U.S. Congress of modern times - in about 48 hours.

Reid and McConnell, veteran tacticians known for their own long-running feud, have been down this road before.

Their last joint venture didn't turn out so well. It was the deal in August 2011 to avoid a U.S. default that set the stage for the current mess. That effort, like this one, stemmed from a grand deficit-reduction scheme that turned into a bust.

But they have never had the odds so stacked against them as they try to avert the "fiscal cliff" - sweeping tax increases set to begin on Tuesday and deep, automatic government spending cuts set to start on Wednesday, combined worth $600 billion.

The substantive differences are only part of the challenge. Other obstacles include concerns about who gets blamed for what and the legacy of distrust among members of Congress.

Any successful deal will require face-saving measures for Republicans and Democrats alike.

"Ordinary folks, they do their jobs, they meet deadlines, they sit down and they discuss things, and then things happen," Obama told reporters. "If there are disagreements, they sort though the disagreements. The notion that our elected leadership can't do the same thing is mind-boggling to them."

CORE DISAGREEMENT

The core disagreement between Republicans and Democrats is tough enough. It revolves around the low tax rates first put in place under Republican former President George W. Bush that expire at year's end. Republicans would extend them for everyone. Democrats would extend them for everyone except the wealthiest taxpayers.

The first step for Reid and McConnell may be to find a formula acceptable to their own parties in the Senate.

While members of the Senate, more than members of the House of Representatives, have expressed flexibility on taxes, it's far from a sure thing in a body that ordinarily requires not just a majority of the 100-member Senate to pass a bill, but a super-majority of 60 members.

With 51 Democrats, two independents who vote with the Democrats and 47 Republicans, McConnell and Reid may have to agree to suspend the 60-vote rule.

Getting a bill through the Republican-controlled House may be much tougher. The conservative wing of the House, composed of many lawmakers aligned with the Tea Party movement who fear being targeted by anti-tax activists in primary elections in 2014, has shown it will not vote for a bill that raises taxes on anyone, even if it means defying Republican House Speaker John Boehner.

Many Democrats are wedded to the opposite view - and have vowed not to support continuing the Bush-era tax rates for people earning more than $250,000 a year.

Some senators are wary of the procedural conditions House Republicans are demanding. Boehner is insisting the Senate start its work with a bill already passed by the House months ago that would continue all Bush-era tax cuts for another year. The Democratic-controlled Senate may amend the Republican bill, he says, but it must be the House bill.

For Boehner, it's the regular order when considering revenue measures, which the U.S. Constitution says must originate in the House.

SHIFT BLAME

As some Democrats see it, it's a way to shift blame if the enterprise goes down in flames. House Republicans would be able to claim that since they had already done their part by passing a bill, the Senate should take the blame for plunging the nation off the "cliff."

And that could bring public wrath, currently centered mostly on Republicans, onto the heads of Democrats.

Voters may indeed be looking for someone to blame if they see their paychecks shrink as taxes rise or their retirement savings dwindle as a result of a plunge in global markets.

If Reid and McConnell succeed, there could be political ramifications for each side. For example, a deal containing any income tax hikes could complicate McConnell's own 2014 re-election effort in which small-government, anti-tax Tea Party activists are threatening to mount a challenge.

If Obama and his fellow Democrats are perceived as giving in too much, it could embolden Republicans to mount challenge after challenge, possibly handcuffing the president before his second term even gets off the ground.

It could be a sprint to the finish. One Democratic aide expected "negotiation for a day." If the aide is correct, the world would know by late on Saturday or early on Sunday if Washington's political dysfunction is about to reach a new, possibly devastating, low.

If Reid and McConnell reach a deal, it would then be up to the full Senate and House to vote, possibly as early as Sunday.

Reid and McConnell have been through bitter fights before. The deficit reduction and debt limit deal that finally was secured last year was a brawl that ended only when the two leaders agreed to a complicated plan that secured about $1 trillion in savings, but really postponed until later a more meaningful plan to restore the country's fiscal health.

That effort led to the automatic spending cuts that form part of the "fiscal cliff."

Just months later, in December 2011, Reid and McConnell were going through a tough fight over extending a payroll tax cut.

In both instances, it was resistance from conservative House Republicans that complicated efforts, just as is the case now with the "fiscal cliff."

(Editing by Fred Barbash and Will Dunham)

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"Fiscal cliff" talks turn sour, Obama threatens veto

1 of 2. U.S. President Barack Obama speaks about the fiscal cliff to members of the media in the White House Briefing Room December 19, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Kevin Lamarque

By Matt Spetalnick and Mark Felsenthal

WASHINGTON | Thu Dec 20, 2012 1:23am EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Talks to avoid a U.S. fiscal crisis stalled on Wednesday as President Barack Obama accused opponents of holding a personal grudge against him while the top Republican negotiator called the president "irrational."

As a year-end deadline nears, Obama and House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner are locked in intense bargaining over a possible deal to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff of harsh tax hikes and automatic spending cuts that could badly damage an already weak economy.

Obama said he was puzzled over what was holding up the talks and told Boehner's Republicans to stop worrying about scoring "a point against the president" or forcing him into concessions "just for the heck of it."

"It is very hard for them to say yes to me," he told a news conference in the White House. "At some point, you know, they've got to take me out of it."

The rise in tensions threatens to unravel significant progress made over the last week.

Boehner and Obama have each offered substantial concessions that have made a deal look within reach. Obama has agreed to cuts in benefits for seniors, while Boehner has conceded to Obama's demand that taxes rise for the richest Americans.

However, the climate of goodwill has evaporated since Republicans announced plans on Tuesday to put an alternative tax plan to a vote in the House this week that would largely disregard the progress made so far in negotiations.

On Wednesday, Obama threatened to veto the Republican measure, known as "Plan B," if Congress approved it.

Boehner's office slammed Obama for opposing their plan, which would raise taxes on households making more than $1 million a year and is a concession from longstanding Republican opposition to increasing any tax rates.

"The White House's opposition to a backup plan ... is growing more bizarre and irrational by the day," Boehner said through his spokesman, Brendan Buck.

Boehner expressed confidence the House would pass the legislation on Thursday. He urged Obama to "get serious" about a balanced deficit reduction plan.

Wall Street is on edge over the fiscal cliff talks although investors still expect a deal. The S&P 500 stock index slipped 0.76 percent on Wednesday.

Business leaders have descended on Washington to lobby for a deal to avoid going over the cliff while putting public finances on a more sustainable path. Without an agreement to narrow deficits over the long run, the United States could eventually lose investors' trust, triggering a debt crisis.

An acrimonious presidential campaign that culminated in Obama's re-election on November 6 has added to the bad blood in Washington between Obama and congressional Republicans.

The two sides also clashed bitterly last year over the government's limit on borrowing - known as the debt ceiling - an episode that nearly led the nation to default on its debt.

On Wednesday, Obama said the fiscal cliff must not get bogged down with negotiations over the debt ceiling, an issue that must be dealt with again early next year.

But Boehner's offer to raise the debt ceiling enough for another year of borrowing is facing opposition from a large group of Republicans, a House Republican aide said.

LITMUS TEST

Any fiscal cliff agreement by Obama and the Republican leadership would need the support of their parties' rank and file in Congress, and Thursday's vote on Plan B will be a test of Boehner's ability to deliver votes on any eventual deal.

Boehner faces opposition from Republican Tea Party conservatives over his concession to raise tax rates. But in a sign some conservatives are coming around to Boehner's position, anti-tax activist Grover Norquist gave his blessing to the bill.

Other conservative groups, including the influential Club for Growth, are urging Republicans to vote against Plan B.

Obama and Boehner appear to have bridged their biggest ideological differences but remain hung up on the mix of tax hikes and spending cuts meant to narrow the budget gap.

"What separates us is probably a few hundred billion dollars," Obama said.

The White House wants taxes to rise on household incomes above $400,000 a year, a concession from Obama's opening proposal for a $250,000 income threshold.

If a deal is not reached soon, some $600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts are set to begin next month.

Senior administration officials described negotiations as at a standstill and Obama warned he would ask everyone involved in the talks, "what it is that's holding it up?"

Still, the top Republican in the Senate said a resolution to the stalemate could come by the end of the week.

"There's still enough time for us to finish all of our work before this weekend, if we're all willing to stay late and work hard," said Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell.

Many Democrats dislike the president's offer to reduce benefits to seniors, although some political allies of Obama have given signs they feel they could swallow this concession.

"I don't like these particular changes," said Democratic Representative Chris Van Hollen, a member of the House leadership from Maryland. But he added: "What people are seeing is the president willing to compromise in order to get things done."

(Additional reporting by Roberta Rampton, Thomas Ferraro and Vicki Allen; Kim Dixon and Richard Cowan; Writing by Jason Lange; Editing by Alistair Bell and Eric Beech)

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Republicans put squeeze on Obama in "fiscal cliff" talks

1 of 3. U.S. House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) speaks at a news conference after a Republican caucus meeting on Capitol Hill in Washington on December 18, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Joshua Roberts

By Thomas Ferraro and Richard Cowan

WASHINGTON | Wed Dec 19, 2012 1:34am EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Frustrated by their inability to wring more "fiscal cliff" concessions out of President Barack Obama, Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives announced Tuesday night that they expect to pass their own tax bill as a backup plan to avert the tax hikes and automatic budget cuts set to occur in January.

No one expects the bill, which would extend low tax rates except on income of $1 million and above, to pass the Democratic-controlled Senate. President Barack Obama's latest position puts the threshold for income tax hikes at $400,000.

While the move, called "Plan B" by Republicans, may not prompt Obama to give further ground in his negotiations with House Speaker John Boehner, it could allow Republicans to argue they did what they could to stop tax hikes and the full impact of the "fiscal cliff," which the Congressional Budget Office and economists have said could trigger another recession.

"Why not put on the floor something that's what most Americans think the president is talking about, which is protecting from tax increases everybody but truly millionaires and billionaires?," said Republican Representative Pat Tiberi of Ohio.

When it dies in the Senate, he said, "that's not our problem. We can't be held responsible for what the Senate does."

Polls have consistently suggested that the public is likely to blame Republicans for failure to reach a deal ahead of the December 31 deadline for action.

After important concessions in recent days from both Obama and Boehner, Republicans expressed frustration that the president had not moved further.

The White House seemed unconcerned by the Republican tactic, and stressed Obama's willingness to compromise further.

"The president has demonstrated an obvious willingness to compromise and move more than halfway toward the Republicans," White House spokesman Jay Carney told reporters, adding that Obama is making a "good faith" effort to reach a compromise.

Still, the mood on Capitol Hill was guardedly optimistic.

Global stocks advanced to their highest levels since September. Investors shifted funds to stocks and the euro and pulled away from safe-harbor assets such as bonds, gold and the U.S. dollar.

"They've still got a long way to go, but you can't help but say that the odds are better today than they were on Friday that we'll get some sort of agreement," said Oklahoma Republican Representative Tom Cole.

Hopes of an accord rose Monday night after Obama made a concession with his offer to limit tax increases to incomes exceeding $400,000 per household. That is a higher threshold than the $250,000 that the president had sought earlier.

Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, had earlier conceded on Obama's insistence that tax rates rise on the wealthiest Americans, but the two have been unable to agree on what income levels should be included in that category.

Analysts said Obama and Boehner may strike a compromise at $500,000 or close to that, though time was running short.

One House Republican aide, asked about prospects for "Plan B" on the House floor, said: "It wouldn't be surprising ... if a lot of conservatives balk at something like that." The House's second ranking Republican, Eric Cantor, said he was confident his party members in the House would back the bill.

'WE CAN DO BETTER'

Even as he presented the measure, Boehner said he would continue to negotiate with Obama on a broader agreement.

"Plan B is Plan B for a reason. It's a less-than-ideal outcome. I've always believed we can do better," Boehner said.

The expiration of low tax rates enacted under former President George W. Bush is a key component of the "fiscal cliff" that lawmakers are trying to prevent from taking hold next month, along with deep automatic government spending cuts.

Often challenged by the conservative wing of his caucus, Boehner held Republican lawmakers together in support of his efforts to forge a deal with Obama. The speaker emerged largely unscathed from a potentially tough meeting with his fellow House Republicans on Tuesday morning.

Representative Darrell Issa, a key committee chairman, said his fellow House Republicans "were supportive of the speaker. ... I saw no one there get up and say, 'I can't support the speaker.'"

With opinion polls showing broad support in the United States for raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans and Obama still buoyed by his re-election last month, the Republicans' traditional opposition to tax hikes has waned somewhat.

The Obama-Boehner talks have largely overcome stark ideological differences and are focused increasingly on narrower disagreements over numbers.

COST-OF-LIVING INCREASES

Obama also may face unrest from within his party. Liberal Democrats were likely to oppose a key compromise he has offered to permit shrinking cost-of-living increases for all but the most vulnerable beneficiaries of the Social Security retirement program. His proposal calls for using a different formula, known as "chained Consumer Price Index," to determine the regular cost-of-living increases, essentially reducing benefits.

"I am committed to standing against any benefit cuts to programs Americans rely on, and tying Social Security benefits to chained CPI is a benefit cut," Democratic Representative Keith Ellison said in a statement.

Obama also moved closer to Boehner on the proportion of a 10-year deficit reduction package that should come from increased revenue, as opposed to cuts in government spending. Obama is now willing to accept a revenue figure of $1.2 trillion, down from his previous $1.4 trillion proposal.

Boehner's latest proposal calls for $1 trillion in new tax revenue from higher tax rates and the curbing of some tax deductions taken by high-income Americans.

Missing from Obama's latest offer was any extension of the so-called "payroll tax holiday" that ends on January 1, bringing an immediate tax increase on wage earners.

Possible plans to produce cuts in spending for Medicare and Medicaid, the government health insurance programs for seniors and low-income Americans respectively, remained to be discussed.

Boehner and Obama have made headway on the politically explosive question of the president's ability to avoid constant battles over raising the nation's debt ceiling, which controls the level of borrowing by the government. Boehner is ready to give Obama a year of relative immunity from conservative strife over the debt ceiling, while Obama is pushing for two years.

(Additional reporting by Thomas Ferraro, Rachelle Younglai, David Lawder, Richard Cowan, Matt Spetalnick, Roberta Rampton, Jeff Mason and Fred Barbash; Writing by Kevin Drawbaugh; Editing by Alistair Bell, Will Dunham and Paul Simao)

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